Saturday, August 29, 2009

Permatang Pasir Analysis

Hooray - BN improved its % of Postal votes from 52% to 75% :).

Well there has been so much misconception about what happened. As usual its up to Wenger to right the wrong. Anyhow first a great thanks to Kalam Perantau, who I believe is a PAS supporter for putting up the results in an Excel readable form.

So in the spirit of sharing, I'll reveal what insights from the "World's Greatest Analyst" on Open source basis.

As we are 1 Malaysia are starting point must of course be race. As usual UMNO bloggers have picked on the MCA for not delivering the votes. Lets take it from there

Chinese King Makers?
Check this table out.

Ok the rows are arranged in the order of which each Peti Undi's contribution to the overall majority of the Winner (PAS).

What can we see
(1) Kg. Gagah contributed the most i.e. a majority of 803 votes which was about 18% of the total majority of 4551. In 2004, BN actually narrowly won this Peti Undi by abput 70 votes
(2) Cross Street was the 3rd highest contribution. In 2004, BN won this seat with 66% of the vote or a majority of 524 votes
Conclusion #1 - Chinese vote deteriorated from '08

This graph contexts the movement from 2008 to 2009. The more it moves downwards, the the greater is PAS gain at BN expense. So we see that in Cross Street, a bad situation became worse.

Conclusion #2 - Even splitting the Chinese vote, BN would still lose bad
(3) If we exclude Kg. Gagah and Cross Street, PAS still beats BN by a majority of 3,100 votes. So in all the overwhelming Malay areas, PAS got 7,283 votes and BN got 4,173 votes. That means 70% of PAS winning margin came from Malay dominated areas.

Scenario #2 - The Old Voters.
5,408 votes were from the Saluran 1 and 2. PAS got 3,328 (62%) and BN got 2,148 (38%) votes. First congrats to whoever was the UMNO Snr rep for Permatang Ara; BN actually won that Saluran (1,2) gaining 439 votes against PAS 416 votes.

This all important Saluran contributes to 35% of the total votes only. So when we see BN/UMNO bang hard on on issues that resonate with old votes, you know the issueslah, we are very sure that they have the right strategy because they are aiming for this all important 35% voting bloc.
(if you don't get that, then you need to read more comic books, not the banned ones ok!)

An important thing is to note the contribution to the overall number of votes. First let me explain what is this. Suppose you have 10 votes, and 9 of your votes come from Saluran 1,2 and the remaining 1 comes from Saluran 3. Your opponent has 100 votes, and 90 comes from Saluran 3 and above and 10 comes from Saluran 1,2. Your opponent beat you in both cases, but we still say that Saluran 1,2 contributed to 90% of your total votes. If you cant get this, then insist that PPSMI be scrapped immediatly!

For BN's case, Saluran 1,2 contributed 41% of their votes. For PAS saluran 1,2 contributed to 35% of their votes.

What does this mean - the BN voter profile is increasingly dependant on the older generation. Think about it, BN could have still got its 5067, but 35% of that votes came from Saluran 1,2 and 65% came from Saluran 3>. That means the profile of the BN voter matches the demographics . But no, in this case, the contribution from Saluran 1,2 was 41% which means that BN cannot convince young voters as well as it convinces old voters. Think about it.

Scenario 3 - The Saluran 3>
PAS got 6,290 votes compared with BN's 2,987 votes. Think about it. Time and time again Wenger says - focus on JOBS. Focus on Cost of Living. Focus on Skills training. But Wenger is a pariah amongst UMNO bloggers. Others say focus on race issues, which Wenger says is the wrong strategy point blank!

This Saluran is supposed to be the Internet generation, and this generation voted in ratio greater than 2:1 to support PAS as opposed to UMNO. I can tell you, in a general election, you can plug this ratio to this Saluran for every state except for Johor, Negeri, Kelantan and Melaka.

Why is the youth showing the '2 Fingers' to BN. Well, just picking a young calon is useless if the campaign is not willing to adopt the right strategy.

Anyhow back to the Data. Needless to say, BN lost all peti undis. But amongst that, some Peti Undi's showed marginal improvement.

So whoever was in charge for Pemuda in Permatang Ara, Pelet, Kubang Semang, Bkt. Indra Muda and Tanah Liat, oklah, you improved. Congrats.Biggest improvement was in Bukit Indra Muda - a full 3 percentage points. (look how far the line extends up to gauge the improvement)

Now to those who screwed up.

Permatang Pauh was the worst. From 33% of the vote in 2008, it came down to only 26% a drop of 7%. The youth vote in Cross Street also dropped from 28% to 24% of the vote. Safe to assume, except for Goh Wei Liang, virtually no Chinese youth voted BN in Cross Street, as the 1 out of 4 who did vote BN would have come from Kg. Uma or Kg. Besar.

So its back to the youth vote. Until we have youth friendly policies, its difficult for BN to match PAS. There are a lot of issues right now which are very youth unfriendly and unfortunately the Government has not been able to solve these problems. It requires a lot of creativity, sound media planners, not the discredited type and some level of 'visionary' factor.

sumber : wenger

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